Global Grains & Oilseeds Outlook 2024/25: Key Trends, Risks & Opportunities

The latest IGC report April 2025 reveals a nuanced picture for global grains and oilseeds markets—tightening stocks, shifting trade flows, and regional supply adjustments. Let’s break down the key insights, forecasts, and what they mean for agribusiness stakeholders.

🔍 Key Takeaways

1️⃣ Grains Production Dips, Stocks at 10-Year Low

- 2024/25 global grains output (wheat + coarse grains) is forecast 3M tons lower m/m at 2,303M tons, with stocks tightening for the 3rd straight year (580M tons, lowest in a decade).

- Biggest declines: Wheat (India’s food use downgraded) and maize (feed demand weakens).

- Trade surprise: Maize flows to sub-Saharan Africa lifted global trade by 2M tons m/m (418M tons total).

2️⃣ 2025/26: A Slightly Brighter Picture 🌱📈

- Maize-led recovery: Production expected to hit a record 2,373M tons (+70M y/y), driven by bumper maize crops.

- But stocks stay flat (580M tons) as demand rises in parallel.

- Trade rebounds to 424M tons, though China’s muted imports cap growth.

3️⃣ Soybeans: Record Trade, But China’s Appetite Wanes 🚜➡️🌍

- 2024/25 trade hits a record 181M tons (+1% y/y), but China’s imports drop sharply (-36M tons).

- 2025/26: South America’s output surge (+3%) keeps global stocks high, but China’s slowdown offsets smaller markets’ demand.

4️⃣ Rice: India Dominates, Africa & Asia Drive Trade 🍚🌏

- India’s exports to exceed 23M tons in 2025/26, supplying 40% of global trade.

- African & Asian demand pushes imports to a record 60M tons by 2026.

5️⃣ Price Movements: Mixed Signals 💰

- Maize (+3%) and soybeans (+1%) firmed up, supported by US supply tightness and biofuel demand.

- Rice (-3%) and wheat dipped on bearish sentiment in Thailand/India.

🌍 Regional Deep Dive

🇮🇳 India: The Rice & Wheat Wildcard

- Rice exports remain strong, but wheat food demand is downgraded—could tighten global balances.

- Ethanol push: Rising industrial maize use (biofuels) signals long-term demand shifts.

🇨🇳 China: The Soybean Slowdown

- Soybean imports plummet (-36M tons y/y)—suppliers must pivot to SE Asia, MENA.

- Grains self-sufficiency push: Reduced maize/wheat imports may persist.

🌽 Americas: Maize & Soybeans Lead

- US maize rebounds (+3% price rally), but Brazil’s soybeans hold steady amid record supply.

- Argentina watch: If dryness persists, global maize/soybean volatility could spike.

🇪🇺 EU & Africa: Trade Shifts

- Sub-Saharan Africa’s maize imports rise—key for Ukrainian/US suppliers.

- EU broad beans demand grows, with Australia filling supply gaps.

📈 Forecasts & Price Risks

⬆️ Upside Drivers

- Biofuel demand: Supports soybean oil & maize (ethanol).

- India’s rice dominance: Export prices may firm if Thai/Vietnamese supply lags.

- Weather disruptions: Any South American (Argentina/Brazil) crop issues could spike grains.

⬇️ Downside Risks

- China’s import slump: Sustained weak demand pressures soybean/maize markets.

- Geopolitical tensions: Black Sea disruptions or India export curbs could roil trade.

- Strong dollar: Makes US exports less competitive vs. Brazil/Russia.

🎯 Final Thoughts

The grains and oilseeds market is at a crossroads: tightening stocks vs. rising 2025/26 production, shifting trade flows, and China’s declining imports reshaping global dynamics.

Winners will be those who adapt:

✅ Diversify away from China (soybean/maize traders).

✅ Monitor India’s ethanol & rice policies for price signals.

✅ Watch South American weather—key for maize/soybean volatility.

👇 What’s your take? Are you bullish on maize, or betting on rice’s resilience? Let’s discuss!

#Agriculture #Commodities #Trade #Grains #Soybeans #RiskManagement

Source: IGC Grains & Oilseeds Report, April 2025